Coverage is a registry, not a folder of PDFs: every name carries pillars with an evidence tier, the conditions that would break the thesis, dated catalysts, the red-team's dissent and fixed-horizon outcomes. Statuses say covered, never whether a name is held. Click a row to open the file.
Each workbook stitches four to five fiscal years of income statement, balance sheet and cash flow from the company's own 10-K XBRL on SEC EDGAR, projects from the trailing twelve months of the latest 10-Qs, and runs a ten-year FCFF DCF with a stated WACC and a WACC × growth sensitivity, checking its own revenue, net income and share count against the SEC companyfacts API before it is trusted. The explorer below recomputes the same arithmetic in your browser and reports the growth the market price implies — bend the assumptions and watch both move. It is a transparent scaffold, not a target price.
Every item is a verdict I actually wrote down, with the date, the numbers that carried it, and the evidence tier of each number. Kills and passes are kept on purpose — a ledger that only shows winners is marketing.
Computed by my own producers from primary feeds — CBOE option chains and VX settlements, CFTC positioning, FINRA short files, OCC volumes, FRED, the US Treasury, the RBA, the OFR, the New York and Cleveland Feds, Binance funding, Tiingo closes — and rebuilt on every refresh. Every tile carries its as-of date; anything past its threshold turns STALE rather than lingering.
Dealer positioning by name — where hedging flows amplify or damp a move into earnings. Computed here from CBOE's own delayed option chains: net dealer gamma per 1% move, the gamma flip, the call and put walls, the straddle's implied move and front ATM vol, for ten coverage-weighted large caps and the SPY complex. Nothing on this page says what is held; the name set is fixed in the build script, not drawn from any book.
TIER 1 = primary: SEC EDGAR filings and XBRL facts, CBOE chains and settlements, CFTC TFF, FINRA and OCC files, FRED, Treasury, RBA, BLS and Federal Reserve releases, broker data. TIER 2 = company-summarised (press releases, calls). TIER 3 = reputable secondary press, used for context only. Aggregators and content farms are banned by rule; a claim that cannot be sourced is dropped, not caveated.
A strategy test writes its hypothesis, universe, costs and KILL criteria to a file before it runs; a discretionary thesis freezes its pillars, invalidation conditions and catalysts and records the git hash. A result can only confirm or kill what was pre-registered. Every new strategy test increments a cumulative trials counter that deflates the significance bar for everyone after it.
Any finding that would move money gets an independent skeptic pass before it is reported as fact. Buy theses are red-teamed; second opinions that dissent from the first plan are kept as dissent, not averaged away.
Ledger calls are scored at fixed 30 / 90 / 180-day horizons against SPY, pending until the horizon has elapsed, with same-index pairs excluded and denominators printed. Registry theses are scored as an equal-weight basket against SPY and a sector ETF. Neither is a P&L: no sizing, no costs.
Agents fan out over filings, sweeps and audits with disposable context; synthesis and decisions stay in one place. Verdicts on this page are the ones I wrote down at the time, with their dates — they are not re-scored after the fact.
No positions, sizes or account figures appear here; a thesis marked covered says nothing about whether it is held. Nothing on this page places orders. Verdicts are dated snapshots of my own reasoning, general information rather than advice, and several were later superseded — the ledger says so where that happened.
Python producers → JSON → this page (generated, never hand-edited; rebuilt on every refresh — nightly once the CI secrets are in place). Dealer gamma = γ·OI·100·S²·1% per contract from CBOE chains, flip = zero-crossing of the Black-Scholes-recomputed profile; VX curve = CBOE daily settlements; COT z-scores vs 3 years of TFF reports; regime engine = the workspace macro model; carry = annualised perp funding vs an explicit deploy gate; DCF = FCFF with the assumptions printed on the model.
TIER 1/2/3 — primary filing or feed / company-summarised / secondary press. PASS / DECLINE — researched and declined; not a buy. KILL — a pre-registered test failed its own bar; final. DSR / PSR — deflated and probabilistic Sharpe ratios (Bailey–López de Prado). CPCV — combinatorial purged cross-validation. PREREG — the hypothesis-and-kill-rule file committed before a test runs. Red-team — an independent pass told to break the thesis. DIX — SqueezeMetrics dark-pool index. OFR FSI — Office of Financial Research stress index (0 = average).