Research Desk
Jacob Garrone · Bachelor of Advanced Finance & Economics (Honours), University of Queensland · personal research desk, US and ASX equities

Personal research notes: a dated log of my own decisions, published as general information and not a recommendation to anyone · no positions, sizes or account figures appear on this page

Start where you sit

four desks, one process — pick the one you hire for

Case file · one thesis end to end

Standing view

Calls against the tape

Other work

Equity research & models

Coverage is a registry, not a folder of PDFs: every name carries pillars with an evidence tier, the conditions that would break the thesis, dated catalysts, the red-team's dissent and fixed-horizon outcomes. Statuses say covered, never whether a name is held. Click a row to open the file.

Models from the filings

Each workbook stitches four to five fiscal years of income statement, balance sheet and cash flow from the company's own 10-K XBRL on SEC EDGAR, projects from the trailing twelve months of the latest 10-Qs, and runs a ten-year FCFF DCF with a stated WACC and a WACC × growth sensitivity, checking its own revenue, net income and share count against the SEC companyfacts API before it is trusted. The explorer below recomputes the same arithmetic in your browser and reports the growth the market price implies — bend the assumptions and watch both move. It is a transparent scaffold, not a target price.

Trailing fundamentals, straight from XBRL

Catalyst calendar · coverage universe

Research ledger

Every item is a verdict I actually wrote down, with the date, the numbers that carried it, and the evidence tier of each number. Kills and passes are kept on purpose — a ledger that only shows winners is marketing.

Quantitative research

Validation gauntlet — the bar every strategy must clear before it touches paper, let alone money

Markets & macro desk

Computed by my own producers from primary feeds — CBOE option chains and VX settlements, CFTC positioning, FINRA short files, OCC volumes, FRED, the US Treasury, the RBA, the OFR, the New York and Cleveland Feds, Binance funding, Tiingo closes — and rebuilt on every refresh. Every tile carries its as-of date; anything past its threshold turns STALE rather than lingering.

Options & positioning
Rates, stress & the Australian base
Short interest · coverage universe

Positioning · dealer gamma by name

Dealer positioning by name — where hedging flows amplify or damp a move into earnings. Computed here from CBOE's own delayed option chains: net dealer gamma per 1% move, the gamma flip, the call and put walls, the straddle's implied move and front ATM vol, for ten coverage-weighted large caps and the SPY complex. Nothing on this page says what is held; the name set is fixed in the build script, not drawn from any book.

▪ short gamma — dealers hedge with the move, amplifying it · ▪ long gamma — dealers hedge against it, damping it. Each cell is net γ·OI dollar gamma per 1% move (US$M), calls positive and puts negative; shading is normalised within each name.
Per-name dealer gamma
Net dealer gamma · strike × expiry
SPY complex · net dealer gamma by strike

Portfolio construction & risk — the method, not the book

Registry discipline · live gauge

How a thesis gets built here

the same five steps, every name — AI agents do the sweeps, the judgment stays with me

Process facts

numbers from the files, not from memory

Tooling

what the desk is built from — all free, all primary

Desk note

Macro read
    Positioning read
      Three names on the desk this week
      Next five dated catalysts
      Methodology, evidence tiers & limitations

      Evidence tiers

      TIER 1 = primary: SEC EDGAR filings and XBRL facts, CBOE chains and settlements, CFTC TFF, FINRA and OCC files, FRED, Treasury, RBA, BLS and Federal Reserve releases, broker data. TIER 2 = company-summarised (press releases, calls). TIER 3 = reputable secondary press, used for context only. Aggregators and content farms are banned by rule; a claim that cannot be sourced is dropped, not caveated.

      Pre-registration

      A strategy test writes its hypothesis, universe, costs and KILL criteria to a file before it runs; a discretionary thesis freezes its pillars, invalidation conditions and catalysts and records the git hash. A result can only confirm or kill what was pre-registered. Every new strategy test increments a cumulative trials counter that deflates the significance bar for everyone after it.

      Adversarial verification

      Any finding that would move money gets an independent skeptic pass before it is reported as fact. Buy theses are red-teamed; second opinions that dissent from the first plan are kept as dissent, not averaged away.

      Scoring

      Ledger calls are scored at fixed 30 / 90 / 180-day horizons against SPY, pending until the horizon has elapsed, with same-index pairs excluded and denominators printed. Registry theses are scored as an equal-weight basket against SPY and a sector ETF. Neither is a P&L: no sizing, no costs.

      AI as workforce, not oracle

      Agents fan out over filings, sweeps and audits with disposable context; synthesis and decisions stay in one place. Verdicts on this page are the ones I wrote down at the time, with their dates — they are not re-scored after the fact.

      What this page is not

      No positions, sizes or account figures appear here; a thesis marked covered says nothing about whether it is held. Nothing on this page places orders. Verdicts are dated snapshots of my own reasoning, general information rather than advice, and several were later superseded — the ledger says so where that happened.

      Build

      Python producers → JSON → this page (generated, never hand-edited; rebuilt on every refresh — nightly once the CI secrets are in place). Dealer gamma = γ·OI·100·S²·1% per contract from CBOE chains, flip = zero-crossing of the Black-Scholes-recomputed profile; VX curve = CBOE daily settlements; COT z-scores vs 3 years of TFF reports; regime engine = the workspace macro model; carry = annualised perp funding vs an explicit deploy gate; DCF = FCFF with the assumptions printed on the model.

      Glossary

      TIER 1/2/3 — primary filing or feed / company-summarised / secondary press. PASS / DECLINE — researched and declined; not a buy. KILL — a pre-registered test failed its own bar; final. DSR / PSR — deflated and probabilistic Sharpe ratios (Bailey–López de Prado). CPCV — combinatorial purged cross-validation. PREREG — the hypothesis-and-kill-rule file committed before a test runs. Red-team — an independent pass told to break the thesis. DIX — SqueezeMetrics dark-pool index. OFR FSI — Office of Financial Research stress index (0 = average).

      General information, not personal financial advice · no positions or sizes are shown · verdicts are dated and unedited